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Endnotes, Ready for Removal Report:
A Decisive Decade for Canadian

 

    1. Friedlingstein, Pierre, et al. “Global Carbon Budget 2022.” Earth System Science Data, vol. 14, no. 11, Nov. 2022, pp. 4811–900. Copernicus Online Journals, doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
    2. Carbon Dioxide Now More than 50% Higher than Pre-Industrial Levels. 3 June 2022, noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels
    3. Hausfather, Zeke. “State of the Climate: How the World Warmed in 2022.” Carbon Brief, 18 Jan. 2023, carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-how-the-world-warmed-in-2022
    4. Rogelj, Joeri, et al. “Credibility Gap in Net-Zero Climate Targets Leaves World at High Risk.” Science, vol. 380, no. 6649, June 2023, pp. 1014–16. DOI.org (Crossref), doi.org/10.1126/science.adg6248
    5. Rogelj, Joeri, Carbon Brief. “Guest Post: What ‘Credible’ Climate Pledges Mean for Future Global Warming.” Carbon Brief, 8 June 2023, carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-credible-climate-pledges-mean-for-future-global-warming
    6. The Paris Agreement, unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement. Accessed 1 July 2023.
    7. Note: Inclusive of fossil fuel use and industrial activity, land use, land-use change, and forestry. Source: Friedlingstein, Pierre, et al. “Global Carbon Budget 2022.” Earth System Science Data, vol. 14, no. 11, Nov. 2022, pp. 4811–900. Copernicus Online Journals, doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
    8. Note: For reference, a megatonne is equal to one million metric tonnes
    9. Hausfather, Zeke. “Explainer: Will Global Warming ‘Stop’ as Soon as Net-Zero Emissions Are Reached?” Carbon Brief, 29 Apr. 2021, carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached
    10. Global Warming of 1.5 oC. ipcc.ch/sr15. Accessed 30 June 2023
    11. Note: Mitigation deterrence describes the potential risk of society not prioritizing emissions reduction and instead opting for CDR to compensate for emissions that should otherwise be eliminated directly. It is important that CDR is not used as an excuse to continue emitting GHGs that could be eliminated in a cost-effective manner
    12. Note: Currently there is no scientific consensus on what should qualify as a ‘residual emission’ and assigning such a definition may involve value judgments
    13. AR6 Longer Report: Climate Change 2023. report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf. Accessed 3 July 2023
    14. Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Schenuit, F., Steinhauser, J., Strefler, J., Valenzuela, J. M., and Minx, J. C. (2023). The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal – 1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/W3B4Z
    15. Repmann, M., Schelske, O., Colijn, D., & Prasad, S. (2021). The insurance rationale for carbon removal solutions. Swiss Re Institute, Swiss Re Management Ltd. swissre.com/dam/jcr:31e39033-0ca6-418e-a540-d61b8e7d7b31/swiss-re-institute-expertise-publication-insurance-%20rationale-for-carbon-removal-solutions.pdf
    16. Note: For context, one gigatonne of CO₂ is equivalent to roughly twice the amount of economy-wide CO₂ emissions in Canada in 2021 (537 MtCO₂). Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada Data / Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada Données. data-donnees.ec.gc.ca/data/substances/monitor/canada-s-official-greenhouse-gas-inventory/B-Economic-Sector. Accessed 4 July 2023
    17. Note: Overshoot describes a period of time when the global average surface temperature of the planet exceeds 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels as established in the Paris Agreement. In the event of warming that exceeds these temperature thresholds, CDR provides the potential to reduce global average surface temperatures back below these thresholds through sustained net-negative emissions
    18. Note: There is still some overlap and interdependencies between these different sets of technologies for applications such as DAC and BECCS
    19. Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Schenuit, F., Steinhauser, J., Strefler, J., Valenzuela, J. M., and Minx, J. C. (2023). The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal – 1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/W3B4Z
    20. Powis, Carter M., et al. “Quantifying Global Carbon Dioxide Removal Deployment.” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 18, no. 2, Jan. 2023, p. 024022. Institute of Physics, doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb450.
    21. Note: This report defines durable CDR as operating on timescales ranging from centuries to millennia through storage mediums that are less vulnerable to physical reversal events.
    22. Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Schenuit, F., Steinhauser, J., Strefler, J., Valenzuela, J. M., and Minx, J. C. (2023). The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal – 1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/W3B4Z CARBON REMOVAL CANADA Section 5: Appendi x 40
    23. “Clean Energy Investment Is Extending Its Lead over Fossil Fuels, Boosted by Energy Security Strengths – News.” IEA, iea.org/news/clean-energy-investment-is-extending-its-lead-over-fossil-fuels-boosted-by-energy-security-strengths. Accessed 13 Aug. 2023.
    24. Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Schenuit, F., Steinhauser, J., Strefler, J., Valenzuela, J. M., and Minx, J. C. (2023). The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal – 1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/W3B4Z
    25. Note: Additional opportunities for CDR (which are not covered in this report) could include the full elimination of national historical emissions and/or pursuing a CDR-as-a-service model where CDR is undertaken in one country on behalf of another country that does not have access to adequate resources and therefore acts as a ‘host country’ for such projects.
    26. United Nations, Climate Change, Long-term strategies portal, unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies. Accessed 25 July 2023.
    27. Note: This figure excludes emissions from the land use, land-use change and forestry or LULUCF sector.
    28. Note: CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) refers to bundling the global warming potential of different types and amounts of greenhouse gasses into a single, common metric that equates to the amount of CO₂ molecules that would have a similar warming effect.
    29. Buck, H.J., Carton, W., Lund, J.F. et al. Why residual emissions matter right now. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 351–358 (2023). doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01592-2
    30. Note: This would be roughly equivalent to taking 28 – 109 million passenger vehicles off the road per year from an emissions standpoint. Source: Government of Canada, Natural Resources Canada. Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator. 13 June 2017, oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/calculator/ghg-calculator.cfm.
    31. Note: This may be especially true given that some models may only optimize on cost rather than a suite of variables that would affect deployment prospects for CDR such as land use requirements and clean energy availability.
    32. Government of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada Provides Update on 2023 Wildland Fire Season Forecast, canada.ca/en/natural-resources-canada/news/2023/07/government-of-canada-provides-update-on-2023-wildland-fire-season-forecast.html
    33. “Canada’s Wildfires Dwarf Emissions from All Other Industries.” The Globe and Mail, 7 Sept. 2023. www.theglobeandmail.com, theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-decibel/article-canadas-wildfires-dwarf-emissions-from-all-other-industries.
    34. Note: This is particularly important given the inherent uncertainty associated with the performance of the LULUCF sector operating as a net sink or source of CO₂ in any given year (particularly with worsening climate impacts to natural systems in the future).
    35. IPCC, 2023: Sections. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 35-115, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
    36. Note: Net zero is a precondition for net-negative. Any CDR deployment from the present through the achievement of net-zero emissions therefore would not contribute to the removal of historical emissions given that it would simply be compensating for ongoing emissions into the atmosphere.
    37. Friedlingstein, P., O’Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Alkama, R., Arneth, A., Arora, V. K., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Bittig, H. C., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Cronin, M., Evans, W., Falk, S., Feely, R. A., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Gloege, L., Grassi, G., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Jersild, A., Kadono, K., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lindsay, K., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGrath, M. J., Metzl, N., Monacci, N. M., Munro, D. R., Nakaoka, S.-I., Niwa, Y., O’Brien, K., Ono, T., Palmer, P. I., Pan, N., Pierrot, D., Pocock, K., Poulter, B., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Rodriguez, C., Rosan, T. M., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Shutler, J. D., Skjelvan, I., Steinhoff, T., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Sweeney, C., Takao, S., Tanhua, T., Tans, P. P., Tian, X., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G. R., Walker, A. P., Wanninkhof, R., Whitehead, C., Willstrand Wranne, A., Wright, R., Yuan, W., Yue, C., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, J., and Zheng, B.: Global Carbon Budget 2022, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
    38. Friedlingstein et al., 2022b
    39. Hansis, E., Davis, S. J., and Pongratz, J.: Relevance of methodological choices for accounting of land use change carbon fluxes, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 29, 1230-1246, 2015.
    40. Note: More specifically, the emissions breakdown includes 34 GtCO₂ from fossil fuel use and 39 GtCO₂ from land-use change.
    41. Note: These figures exclude non-CO₂ greenhouse gases.
    42. Note: Higher levels of certainty beyond >50 per cent would be desirable for both 1.5°C scenarios but such data were not available for this analysis.
    43. Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Schenuit, F., Steinhauser, J., Strefler, J., Valenzuela, J. M., and Minx, J. C. (2023). The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal – 1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/W3B4Z CARBON REMOVAL CANADA Section 5: Appendix 41
    44. IPCC, 2022: Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods [Guivarch, C., E. Kriegler, J. Portugal-Pereira, V. Bosetti, J. Edmonds, M. Fischedick, P. Havlík, P. Jaramillo, V. Krey, F. Lecocq, A. Lucena, M. Meinshausen, S. Mirasgedis, B. O’Neill, G.P. Peters, J. Rogelj, S. Rose, Y. Saheb, G. Strbac, A. Hammer Strømman, D.P. van Vuuren, N. Zhou (eds)]. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.022
    45. Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency. 21 Mar. 2023, irena.org/Publications/2023/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2023.
    46. “Biden-Harris Administration Announces Up To $1.2 Billion For Nation’s First Direct Air Capture Demonstrations in Texas and Louisiana.” Energy.Gov, energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-announces-12-billion-nations-first-direct-air-capture. Accessed 20 Aug. 2023.
    47. An Advance Market Commitment to Accelerate Carbon Removal. frontierclimate.com. Accessed 20 Aug. 2023.
    48. The analysis was conducted by Navius Research using their gTech model to investigate the jobs and economic opportunities that could result from scaling up CDR technologies in Canada.
    49. “One More Reason for Rapid Climate Action: Economics.” World Economic Forum, 24 May 2022, weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/one-more-reason-for-rapid-climate-action-economics.
    50. Note: Defined as “solutions that can verifiably remove and sequester emissions for 100–1,000+ years”
    51. Karan, M., Carroll, B., Baker, T., Ponce de Leon Barido, P., Dewar, A., & Sims, A. (2023). “Climate Needs and Market Demand Drive Future for Durable CDR.” BCG Global, 11 Sept. 2023, bcg.com/publications/2023/the-need-and-market-demand-for-carbon-dioxide-removal.
    52. The model assumed that DAC costs were relatively high in 2050 (a minimum of $217 per tonne) and overall adoption was low (high availability of new nuclear power plants, low future biofuel costs, low global oil prices, and low population growth in Canada). DAC was used in the model as a proxy for any type of CDR. Results should not be interpreted as Carbon Removal Canada assuming that all CDR will rely on DAC.
    53. “Charm Industrial.” A Story of American Ingenuity and Progress, charmindustrial.com/newjobs. Accessed 14 Sept. 2023.
    54. Area. cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/area/country-comparison. Accessed 16 Aug. 2023.
    55. “Countries With The Longest Coastline.” WorldAtlas, 1 Oct. 2020, worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-most-coastline.
    56. Canada, Natural Resources. How-Much-Forest-Does-Canada-Have. 11 June 2015, natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/state-canadas-forests-report/how-much-forest-does-canada-have.
    57. Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food. Overview of Canada’s Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector. 5 Nov. 2021, agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/overview.
    58. “Canada – Countries & Regions.” IEA, iea.org/countries/canada. Accessed 16 Aug. 2023.
    59. Government of Canada, Canada Energy Regulator. CER – Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles – Canada. 3 Mar. 2023, cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-canada.
    60. Government of Canada, Canada Energy Regulator. CER – Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050. 16 Aug. 2023, cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2023/#:~:text=Canada%27s%20Energy%20Future%202023%20focuses,zero%20world%20could%20look%20like.
    61. Note: Geologic storage could play a supportive role for CDR in terms of carbon storage but is not itself a CDR method.
    62. “NATCARB/ATLAS.” Netl.Doe.Gov, netl.doe.gov/coal/carbon-storage/strategic-program-support/natcarb-atlas; netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/2018-10/ATLAS-V-2015.pdf. Accessed 20 Aug. 2023.
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    65. Note: This estimate is based on the CO₂ emissions level of 537 MtCO₂ in 2021.
    66. Kearns, J., Teletzke, G., Palmer, J., Thomann, H., Kheshgi, H., Chen, H., Paltsev, S., & Herzog, H. (2017). Developing a consistent database for regional geologic CO₂ storage capacity worldwide, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_17-18.pdf. Accessed 10 Oct. 2023.
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    69. Pillorge, H., Kolosz, B., Wu, G.C., & Freeman, J. (2021). “Global Mapping of CDR Opportunities.” CDR Primer, edited by J Wilcox, B Kolosz, J Freeman. cdrprimer.org/read/chapter-3. Accessed 21 Aug. 2023.
    70. NATCARB_AllData_v1502 – EDX. edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/natcarb-alldata-v1502. Accessed 29 Aug. 2023.
    71. Secretariat, Treasury Board of Canada, and Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat. Open Government Portal. open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/a883eb14-0c0e-45c4-b8c4-b54c4a819edb/resource/12c03de6-c3f7-4f5f-bb5c-d479f2332842. Accessed 29 Aug. 2023.
    72. News ·, Kyle Bakx ·. CBC. “Canadian Clean Tech Companies, Investment and Talent Begin Moving to the U.S. | CBC News.” CBC, 19 June 2023, cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bakx-clean-tech-ira-ccs-1.6879129.
    73. News ·, Kyle Bakx ·. CBC. “These Clean Tech Startups Launched in Calgary, but Most of Their Sales Are in the U.S. | CBC News.” CBC, 4 Aug. 2023, cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/methane-epa-kathairos-qube-westgen-convrg-1.6926611.
    74. “Government consults Canadians on Budget 2023 measures to grow the clean economy, close tax loopholes, and deliver tax relief for Canadians”, Department of Finance Canada, canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2023/08/government-consults-canadians-on-budget-2023-measures-to-grow-the-clean-economy-close-tax-loopholes-and-deliver-tax-relief-for-canadians. Accessed 12 Aug. 2023.
    75. Note: CDR through CO₂ utilization can only be achieved if the source of the CO₂ is from the atmosphere or biogenic feedstocks and the entire end-to-end process (i.e., full project life cycle) results in net-negative emissions.
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    86. BMO First Bank to Pre-Purchase Direct Air Capture Carbon Removals Using Carbon Engineering Technology. capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/news-insights/news-releases/bmo-first-bank-pre-purchase-direct-air-capture-carbon-removals-using-carbon-engineering-technology. Accessed 2 Aug. 2023.
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